As Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson presented her forecast for Sweden on Tuesday, the main risk factors in the economy were the fall in house prices, a slowdown in China and political uncertainty in the US.
Magdalena Andersson calls the price fall a “correction”. “There are factors here that indicate that we ought to be able to move towards continued strong demand for housing in Sweden, which is most likely to be able to counteract the slowdown we are seeing just now on the housing market,” she said, but added that it is always hard to predict house prices and the property market is holding back growth in Sweden.
The economy will grow at a faster rate in coming years with a rise of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively for GDP growth of 2.8% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019. The government is lowering growth for 2017 from 3.1% to 2.5%. However that is related to a revision of historical figures from Statistics Sweden. In absolute numbers, Sweden’s economy is as large as the government thought in the autumn.
Unemployment is falling more slowly and the government will achieve its new surplus target with a structural surplus of 0.33% over the entire forecast period.
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